The Public Ledger

EVERY BET. EVERY RESULT. EVERY CLV.

Every settled bet since the current model went live on 19 May 2026, pulled from the live database. Including the weeks we got it wrong and the bets that beat the closing line but still lost. Rows are append-only — never edited after grading, only footnoted. What ran before 19 May was pre-launch testing under earlier models; it isn’t part of this record, and no one was charged during it.

Settled Bets

60

Win Rate

43.3%

Net Units

+6.97u

Avg CLV*

+0.17%

Last updated: 5 Aug 2026 08:47 GMT+10

*CLV methodology note: the figure compares the best available price at publish against the recorded closing price, without a vig adjustment. That flatters the model — sometimes substantially on individual rows. It’s published for transparency, not offered as proof of edge; a corrected, vig-adjusted methodology is in the works and the change will be footnoted here when it lands.

Every week since launch

Green weeks billed · red weeks free — and still on the wall

  1. W21
  2. W22
  3. W23
  4. W24
  5. W25
  6. W26
  7. W27
  8. W28
  9. W29
  10. W30
  11. W31
  12. W32

The drawdown

THE PART EVERY TIPSTER CROPS OUT.

Equity & drawdown

12 weeks · cumulative units

CumulativeDrawdown

SETTLED BETS · SINCE 19 MAY 2026

60 rows · page 1 of 2

MLB01 Aug

Boston Red Sox

@2.20 · 1.0u · CLV +1.72%

WON

+1.20u

Allsvenskan20 July

Kalmar FF

@3.10 · 0.5u · CLV +4.51%

LOST

-0.50u

FIFA World Cup18 July

France

@2.60 · 1.0u · CLV +7.41%

LOST

-1.00u

MLB18 July

New York Yankees

@2.10 · 1.0u · CLV +5.01%

LOST

-1.00u

MLB11 July

Pittsburgh Pirates

@2.10 · 1.0u · CLV +0.00%

WON

+1.10u

MLB10 July

Colorado Rockies

@2.43 · 1.0u · CLV +6.02%

LOST

-1.00u

AFL04 July

Melbourne Demons

@3.50 · 0.5u · CLV +4.76%

WON

+1.25u

WTA Wimbledon29 June

Shuai Zhang

@2.65 · 1.0u · CLV +6.71%

WON

+1.65u

FIFA World Cup28 June

Algeria

@3.60 · 0.5u · CLV +6.70%

LOST

-0.50u

FIFA World Cup28 June

Uzbekistan

@3.80 · 0.5u · CLV +4.45%

LOST

-0.50u

CFL27 June

Toronto Argonauts

@2.95 · 1.0u · CLV +5.32%

WON

+1.95u

FIFA World Cup26 June

Paraguay

@2.10 · 1.0u · CLV +7.94%

LOST

-1.00u

MLB21 June

Kansas City Royals

@2.25 · 1.0u · CLV +2.73%

LOST

-1.00u

Test Matches21 June

New Zealand

@3.00 · 1.0u · CLV +0.00%

WON

+2.00u

MLB21 June

Los Angeles Angels

@2.65 · 1.0u · CLV +3.93%

WON

+1.65u

FIFA World Cup16 June

Draw

@3.80 · 0.5u · CLV +1.46%

WON

+1.40u

NHL15 June

Vegas Golden Knights

@2.75 · 1.0u · CLV +12.18%

LOST

-1.00u

FIFA World Cup15 June

Ecuador

@2.40 · 1.0u · CLV +2.78%

LOST

-1.00u

NRL14 June

Gold Coast Titans

@2.63 · 1.0u · CLV -3.18%

LOST

-1.00u

AFL14 June

Greater Western Sydney Giants

@2.05 · 1.0u · CLV +1.22%

LOST

-1.00u

NRL13 June

Parramatta Eels

@2.20 · 1.0u · CLV +1.06%

WON

+1.20u

AFL13 June

West Coast Eagles

@2.35 · 1.0u · CLV +1.89%

LOST

-1.00u

MLB13 June

Philadelphia Phillies

@3.40 · 0.5u · CLV +1.84%

LOST

-0.50u

NRL12 June

Sydney Roosters

@2.50 · 1.0u · CLV +2.37%

LOST

-1.00u

NHL12 June

Carolina Hurricanes

@2.35 · 1.0u · CLV +18.05%

WON

+1.35u

NHL12 June

Vegas Golden Knights

@3.20 · 0.5u · CLV +10.07%

LOST

-0.50u

NRL11 June

Brisbane Broncos

@2.70 · 1.0u · CLV +29.63%

LOST

-1.00u

One Day Internationals09 June

Bangladesh

@2.50 · 1.0u · CLV +3.48%

WON

+1.50u

One Day Internationals09 June

West Indies

@2.10 · 1.0u · CLV +1.16%

LOST

-1.00u

NRL08 June

Parramatta Eels

@2.60 · 1.0u · CLV +3.56%

LOST

-1.00u

NHL07 June

Vegas Golden Knights

@2.65 · 1.0u · CLV +14.90%

WON

+1.65u

AFL06 June

Brisbane Lions

@2.75 · 1.0u · CLV +3.64%

WON

+1.75u

AFL05 June

Western Bulldogs

@3.34 · 0.5u · CLV +12.79%

WON

+1.17u

NRL05 June

Canberra Raiders

@2.30 · 1.0u · CLV +2.39%

LOST

-1.00u

NRL05 June

Newcastle Knights

@2.45 · 1.0u · CLV +9.18%

LOST

-1.00u

NHL05 June

Vegas Golden Knights

@3.25 · 0.5u · CLV +10.55%

LOST

-0.50u

One Day Internationals04 June

West Indies

@2.29 · 1.0u · CLV +16.94%

LOST

-1.00u

NHL03 June

Vegas Golden Knights

@3.15 · 0.5u · CLV +9.58%

WON

+1.08u

MLB02 June

Kansas City Royals

@2.55 · 1.0u · CLV +6.66%

WON

+1.55u

NRL31 May

New Zealand Warriors

@2.08 · 1.0u · CLV -0.46%

LOST

-1.00u

NRL31 May

North Queensland Cowboys

@2.35 · 1.0u · CLV +2.29%

LOST

-1.00u

One Day Internationals30 May

Australia

@2.10 · 1.0u · CLV -1.75%

LOST

-1.00u

UEFA Champions League30 May

Arsenal

@3.60 · 0.5u · CLV +2.53%

LOST

-0.50u

NRL30 May

Melbourne Storm

@2.05 · 1.0u · CLV +2.50%

WON

+1.05u

AFL30 May

Fremantle Dockers

@2.15 · 1.0u · CLV +2.51%

WON

+1.15u

NRL29 May

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

@2.17 · 1.0u · CLV +5.73%

LOST

-1.00u

NHL28 May

Montréal Canadiens

@3.20 · 0.5u · CLV +15.26%

LOST

-0.50u

MLB27 May

Philadelphia Phillies

@2.25 · 1.0u · CLV +6.84%

WON

+1.25u

NHL27 May

Vegas Golden Knights

@2.70 · 1.0u · CLV +15.59%

WON

+1.70u

NHL26 May

Montréal Canadiens

@3.00 · 1.0u · CLV +0.00%

LOST

-1.00u

Net · last 0d

+2.60u

Stakes expressed in units. One unit = one percent of bankroll. CLV is the move from our best price at posting to the closing price — positive CLV is the leading indicator a bookmaker eventually limits. The ledger is append-only; rows are never edited after grading, only footnoted.

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